Future of quality management system (ISO 9001) certification: novel grey forecasting approach

Jan 1, 2021·
Muhammad Ikram
,
Qingyu Zhang
,
Robert Sroufe
· 1 min read
Abstract
Regarded as one of the most effective tools to guide quality systems management, ISO 9001 is a valuable certification. Yet, the growth observed throughout the world by this standard provides a strong polarisation of interest in this practice by the companies. Our research goals are to analyze and forecast trends involving ISO 9001 certification of six countries, China, Italy, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and India. We gathered ISO 9001 countrywide certification data over nine years from 2018 to 2026. The methods used in this study include Even GM (1, 1), Discrete GM (1, 1) and Non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM) with an accompanying synthetic growth rate and synthetic doubling time grey models to investigate the comparison among these countries. The result reveals that Germany will likely continue to lead ISO 9001 certifications at a country level through 2026. We also find that Japan and UK required more time for ISO 9001 certification to double than other countries. Our forecasting of the uptake of the ISO 9001 standard is significant for the certification bodies to understand market diffusion and trends. Implications include this study providing valuable policy guidelines for decision-makers, and new opportunities for further research for scholars.
Type
Publication
Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 32(15-16), 1666–1693
publication

Regarded as one of the most effective tools to guide quality systems management, ISO 9001 is a valuable certification. Yet, the growth observed throughout the world by this standard provides a strong polarisation of interest in this practice by the companies. Our research goals are to analyze and forecast trends involving ISO 9001 certification of six countries, China, Italy, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and India. We gathered ISO 9001 countrywide certification data over nine years from 2018 to 2026. The methods used in this study include Even GM (1, 1), Discrete GM (1, 1) and Non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM) with an accompanying synthetic growth rate and synthetic doubling time grey models to investigate the comparison among these countries. The result reveals that Germany will likely continue to lead ISO 9001 certifications at a country level through 2026. We also find that Japan and UK required more time for ISO 9001 certification to double than other countries. Our forecasting of the uptake of the ISO 9001 standard is significant for the certification bodies to understand market diffusion and trends. Implications include this study providing valuable policy guidelines for decision-makers, and new opportunities for further research for scholars.