Models for predicting non-renewable energy competing with renewable source for sustainable energy development: case of Asia and Oceania Region

Accurate energy forecasting is of great significance to meet the energy demands, clean energy plans and sustainable energy development strategies. Therefore, this study develops the integrated grey framework to forecast the growth trends of renewable and non-renewable energy production and consumption in Asia and Oceania region from 2017 to 2025 by using novel grey forecasting models, namely even grey model, discrete grey model, optimized discrete grey model and non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM). Mean absolute percentage error was employed to measure the performance of grey models. Data were collected from the International Energy Agency from 1980 to 2016. The results reveal that the energy consumption and production from coal as a non-renewable energy source are comparatively higher than any other energy source and depicted an increasing trend until 2025. Renewable, nuclear and other renewable sources of energy production and consumption showed the uprising trend with slow pace. Moreover, the consumptions of petroleum started with 23.07 quadrillion BTU in 1980; however, the production ended at 18.577 quads BTU in 2015. The production and consumption of petroleum will reach approximately 21.0465 and 93.750 quads BTU, respectively, in 2025 and are projected to increase in Asia and Ocean region. All the four grey models showed the excellent performance. NDGM performance was recorded slightly higher. The study is first of its kind to develop the grey integrated forecasting framework to predict the renewable and non-renewable production and consumption in the region of Asia and Oceania. This study provides useful information for policymakers, decision-makers and energy experts in sustainable energy planning, and simultaneously helps to make the environment more sustainable.

Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, 22(Suppl 2), 133–160